Craftingchances are not OK

[SK1976]

Hi !
I have a problem with crafting.


i have a chance at crafting 31% of an item. i crafted 3 times - all failed. so than i crafted 2 times again - failed again.

at 31% the 4th try must be getting the crafted item. Why i not get it !

I loose all items from quest or i buyed from players....and spending many times at mines to get material.

It is on my mage acc SK19762.

I waisted many, many time on crafting and getting needed items thats only gives one time in an chest. and i need 4 (Oh i forget at 31% i need it 100000 times)

GM or Admin correct that ! The crafting % are not OK ind everything i think !

Its so hard to loose all items getting from players and waisted all my times ! GM Give me the mana ring 1k of my mage acc.

please pm me on this acc or met me in game as my mage acc SK19762 and ask me for that problem if you not understand !

[MadMikael]

at 31% the 4th try must be getting the crafted item. Why i not get it !

Incorrect.
At your first attempt, chance is 31%.
At your fourth attempt, chance is still 31%.
At your twentieth attempt, chance is still 31%.
At your one-hundredth attempt, chance is still 31%.

It is completely possible, that you could make 1000 attempts, and fail at all.
While mathematics says that's unlikely, it also says it's possible.

[cotne7]

lol SK your so lucky that u got only 4 fails.
I had in speed3 tools 2 succeed from 21 trying..
I was mad

[Leone]

It's like flipping a coin: heads or tails? 50% chance for each and I bet heads.

1st attempt tails
2nd attempt tails
3rd attempt tails
4th attempt tails

It could go either way each time as each toss of the coin is independent from the previous one.

[death911]

Whenever i definitely want an item by crafting i make sure that i have materials for at least 10 try. Then i craft all at one time. That gives a better chance for craft success. If i craft 3 or 4 times intermittently. That means 1 now , the next one later after collecting materials for another craft later, then another one later and so on. I usually fail most of the time.
So according to me, to get better chance for success collect enough materials for 10 crafts, store these items in houses or in alts and then after collecting enough craft them at once. U should definitely get 1 or more than 1 success. Because 10 times craft fail in a row in also very rare.

[LostKnight]

{snip} Whenever i definitely want an item by crafting i make sure that i have materials for at least 10 try. Then i craft all at one time. That gives a better chance for craft success. {snip}

I agree with this and have tested the theory a few time. death911 speaks the truth. But still remember is last words:

{snip} That gives a better chance for craft success. {snip}

[SellSword]

If I want to succeed at getting an item I buy it from someone. That's why people can charge a high amount selling things.

I think that I've failed at trying to craft the same thing now about ten times in a row now, and when I gather materials for another try it could very well be 11 tries in a row. It's not lIke there is a built in pity program where you fail at something enough times in a row and it summons Combatant in his golden named splendor to just give you the item. (I'll certainly edit my post if I'm wrong.) I'm not someone who plays every waking second (uh, you know, doing other things also), so that's pretty much all I've done for the last few days now. It stinks, and it might be time to take a break and grind or something, but probabilities are what they are. Same thing applies in real life.

[LostKnight]

Hey SellSword, always buying means you will be short on cash comes the day you need it for a quest..

[SellSword]

Hey SellSword, always buying means you will be short on cash comes the day you need it for a quest..

Then start crafting and sell stuff to people who can't craft!

I'm saying buying guarantees you get something. Don't worry, I'm too stubborn to take the easy way out!

[SK1976]

lol !
Funny game...


It is existing only 1 Item from chest in game, noone drops that item u need to craft with a chance of 31%.

Where should we get the other items if only one exists ! lololol

idk if i m right, but its very frustrated because some good players are helping me and i m mad to loose there items because i tried to craft !

my english is so funny....i hope u understand me.


i give it up to craft this item !
Lost to maaaannnnyyyyy time on crafting and recources picking!

if there is someone who sells me for gold.....

ty bros !